The New CITI

It is clear that banks such as Citi and Bank of America were on the brink of collapse during the Great Recession of 2008.

Citi received $45 Billion in Tarp funds and subsequently converted the government's preferred stock into common stock. The government now owns 34% of Citi common stock. There has been a huge increase in common shares outstanding as a result of the combined government and private $58 Billion preferred stock exchange offer. All of the preferred holdings were converted into common stock thereby diluting common shareholders and eliminating the payment of preferred dividends. This conversion has dramatically improved Citi's capital base as it now has a higher tangible book value than most big financial institutions.

Citi has split itself into two banks- the retail and investment bank and Citi Holdings. Citi Holdings consists of the household lending arm and other asset pools of capital. The big question has been whether these so called 'toxic assets' will pay off. Based on tangible book value, Citi is cheap with a strong capital base. It is relying on its' global trading and investment banking business to create profits. Fundamentals have improved as credit quality has stabilized and consumer credit delinquencies have steadied.

Random thoughts....Bank of America is in a similar position as Citi but is stronger because of the acquisition of Merrill Lynch last year....the Dow Jones is down close to 20% in the last twelve months...look for the market to test 9,700 on the Dow and 1100 on the S&P within a few months....September, 2009 will be here in days as people try to forget the Lehman collapse of last September.....remember that the market is a leading indicator and it is pointing to a strong first half of 2010....the real estate market will be on the upswing in 2010 as party talk will include the discussion of 'jumbo mortgages'....

Tangible Common Equity

Tangible Common Equity (TCE) is defined as equity capital (common stock) of a bank, less goodwill and other intangibles (net worth). It indicates the borrowing capacity or strength of a bank or what common shareholders would get if the bank were dissolved. Intangible assets like goodwill don't produce any income and therefore don't have a cash equivalent value.

Regulators have determined that TCE is the key indicator to follow in their stress test evaluations. Some experts believe that a TCE ratio of 4% to 5% should indicate enough strength for a bank to stay solvent in a deep recession. The nineteen top US banks received TARP funds in the form of preferred stock which carry a dividend of 5%. The Obama administration hopes to convert the preferred stock to common stock thereby eliminating the 5% dividend and increasing the banks cash flow. This conversion would increase the TCE ratio for the bank and dilute common shareholders. The only bank that has agreed to convert is CITI which will see its' TCE ratio go to 5% or above after the conversion.

In summary, on May 4th regulators will release the results of the stress tests which will indicate which other financial institutions will have to dilute their shareholders by converting the TARP preferred stock to common stock.

Random thoughts....Swine flu is the talk of the day.....will the markets ignore it and go up anyway? ..GM unveiled another restructuring plan ....will it succeed....Obama's first hundred days are over...what do you think? ...look for regional banks with large commercial real estate loans to get low grades from the stress tests.....potential large banks that will have to raise capital include Wells Fargo and Bank of America...

Bank of the United States

Is it possible for the United States government to own our largest banks? Will Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citi, and JPM be owned by the USA by the end of 2009? As the economy heads to depression (20% chance), the banks will need more and more capital to stay in business. President-elect Obama will pull out all of the stops. He will have $ Trillions to invest in our country. If the decline moderates, the banks will get stronger. If we enter a period of deflation and depression, the banks will be nationalized.

My hope begins next Tuesday. Consumer psychology can turn on a dime. The new President will instill confidence in his leadership abilities which will lead to consumer confidence. As I have said, the demand for products and services has dropped precipitously in the last four months. It is up to the new government to change this psychology.

Random thoughts......forget about seeing the movie CHE......today is option expiration day on Wall Street......I worry about the stock of GE......no market on Monday. ....it is MLK day.....I hope the pilot of the US Air plane is honored by President Obama......Who will be the next senator from New York?

Gold or Silver

It would seem that President Obama's new Economic team, including Timothy Gietner (Secretary of the Treasury), Paul Volcker and Governor Richardson (Commerce Secretary) will have to decide whether or not our economic system needs to be overhauled. Maybe we need to go back to the Gold Standard. Maybe the system of throwing darts at resolving the current economic meltdown will be debated by men who see alternatives. This weekend would be a great time for everyone to go to their local college bookstore and purchase a current economic textbook and decide whether or not it makes sense. It is clear that since September 15, our market system is not following any economic model. Hopefully on Monday, we will learn what President Obama will offer us for the future.

Random thoughts.....It is time to see a Movie Double Feature this weekend...James Bond would be a great first choice to take your mind to Italy or The Boy in the Striped Pajamas will definitely make you forget how much money you have lose on paper...Remember that November and December are tough months for gaining weight..no bread....Of course, lets not forget Citi...what will happen over the weekend....?