Revisiting the January Indicator

The January Indicator is simple-whichever way January goes, so goes the entire year. It seems that this market forecasting tool is right over 70% of the time. January has five trading days left. We need a huge rally to offset the dire action so far this month. I expect the indicator to indicate a down stock market year in 2009. I want to be optimistic, so there is a chance that this dismal economy is such an anomaly that all bets are off as far as the validity of the indicator. The question for this week remains 'how will the equity and bond markets react in 2009'? We will have to wait a few weeks for the details of President Obama's new stimulus package. The Congress gave the President approval to use the remaining $350 Billion from the TARP. What will happen to the five major banks in this country? Will it be nationalization (and death of equity) or a hybrid like a 'good bank' and a 'bad bank' (more risk to the government)? Remember that the market could have a huge rally at anytime as the DOW has held 8,000 in spite of horrible earnings reports. I guess I will wait for results of the remaining five trading days of January, 2009.

Random thoughts......What is worse than a 'depression'? email your thoughts.....deflation seems to be rampant everywhere.....demand is almost nonexistent......Obama had a great first week as President....lets watch the next 93 days for action....