Showing posts with label ford. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ford. Show all posts

Saturday, August 1, 2009

The Clunker jump starts the Economy


Supply and Demand is an economic model based on price, utility and quantity in a competitive market which results in economic equilibrium. One of the consequences of the Great Recession of 2008-2009 is zero demand by consumers for automobiles and other tangible goods.


The U.S. government recently launched a new program called CARS (Car Allowance Rebate System) wherein the consumer receives a credit of $3,500 or $4,500 at the time of purchase of a new energy efficient vehicle for their 'clunker'. Qualified purchases must take place between July 1, 2009 and November 1, 2009. The original law called for the program to halt when $1 Billion of rebates was awarded to consumers. Due to overwhelming demand, the program will be funded with an additional $2 Billion for purchases by November 1, 2009. Cash for Clunkers has been an amazing success in Germany where up to $7 Billion has been given back to consumers. Similar programs are being approved in France and the U.K.


The programs have boosted automobile sales, saved factory jobs and got rid of 'clunker' cars which helps the environment. We can expect automobile production for the next few months to ramp up and produce profits for the industry. The $3 Billion cost is a hefty price to pay, but it directly creates demand for automobiles and will help to jump start the economy.


Random thoughts.... The stock markets performance in July shattered records as the professionals were starting to buy....there is still $trillions sitting on the sidelines getting 'zero' income in money market accounts....the residential real estate market will start to tick up in the next few months....look for pent-up demand to drive sales in every sector of the economy...

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Lean and Mean


The three U.S. automakers are currently looking for a loan of over $25 Billion from the TARP. The CEO's of all three companies are prepared to go 'lean and mean' so that they will have enough money to pay Taxpayers back. My opinion is that the Unions are killing the United States Automobile Industry. The Medical and Retirement costs are just too expensive. The monetary losses of the employee buyouts will use up more capital. Therefore, in this case, 'lean and mean' doesn't translate into profits. The industry has to receive the capital because the American Taxpayer does not have a choice today. Obama still has sixty days to go and the psychology of the country is as negative as it has ever been. I guess we all do not have a choice. The Auto industry wins!!!

The American consumer is in hiding. The Revenue side of American business is suffering. Expenses have to be cut with the hope that buyers return. This is a classic example of 'supply and demand'. Today there is very little demand in the Automobile Industry.

Random thoughts....Jerry Yang is gone....Why did he refuse to sell YHOO to MSFT?
My guess is that MSFT will be back next year with a $18 bid at best. I heard today that certain CMBS loans are in default ( these are commercial real estate loans)....hotels and office buildings were financed by these loans...we have to watch this carefully...follow the 'IYR'..

Monday, November 17, 2008

Waiting for President Obama


As the stock market goes down everyday, it is apparent that the world is waiting for January 20, 2009. The G-20 meeting last weekend agreed to meet in April, 2009 with President Obama. Is it possible for anything positive to happen in the next sixty days? I guess when Obama names his Secretary of the Treasury and informs the market about his upcoming policies. The market looks like it will test 7800 in the next few days. We may be headed to 7200 on the Dow by Friday. I expect retail sales to get better starting on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. Hopefully, people will begin spending with hope for the future. It is Obama's job in the next sixty days to provide this hope.

Random thoughts...Mark Cuban has been charged with insider trading...why would he do this with a balance sheet in the Billions?....Citibank is firing 50,000 employees worldwide...I expect the unemployment rate to be over 8% by January,2009....will GM get money this week? I think so.....but it is easy to predict that GM, Ford,or Chrysler will be history at this time next year...