Yield or Capital Gain or Loss

Based on the market close today, JP Morgan (JPM)common stock is yielding 6.7%, Altria (MO) is at 8%, Bank of America is at 11.20% and Citi (C) is basically zero dividend. Which stock or any would you buy? Believe it or not, there are many stocks where the dividend is safe, except in the case of a depression. One of those is Altria (MO), the tobacco company. In the financial arena, JPM, BAC, etc. will definitely be cutting or eliminating their dividends as the next six months unfold. Citi has a government backstop to losses and no dividend. Which would you rather own? How about Exxon (XOM) or Apple (AAPL)? This coming Thanksgiving weekend is a good time to evaluate all of your favorite stocks to determine what to do next. There is no doubt in my mind that 2009 will be a very weak year for earnings. Many dividends will be eliminated but many stocks will go up.

Random thoughts....I bet you cannot count how many household name stocks are under $10/share....take a look in the Wall Street Journal and you will not believe the companies that are trading under $20/share....When will single family real estate stop going down? ....

Lean and Mean

The three U.S. automakers are currently looking for a loan of over $25 Billion from the TARP. The CEO's of all three companies are prepared to go 'lean and mean' so that they will have enough money to pay Taxpayers back. My opinion is that the Unions are killing the United States Automobile Industry. The Medical and Retirement costs are just too expensive. The monetary losses of the employee buyouts will use up more capital. Therefore, in this case, 'lean and mean' doesn't translate into profits. The industry has to receive the capital because the American Taxpayer does not have a choice today. Obama still has sixty days to go and the psychology of the country is as negative as it has ever been. I guess we all do not have a choice. The Auto industry wins!!!

The American consumer is in hiding. The Revenue side of American business is suffering. Expenses have to be cut with the hope that buyers return. This is a classic example of 'supply and demand'. Today there is very little demand in the Automobile Industry.

Random thoughts....Jerry Yang is gone....Why did he refuse to sell YHOO to MSFT?
My guess is that MSFT will be back next year with a $18 bid at best. I heard today that certain CMBS loans are in default ( these are commercial real estate loans)....hotels and office buildings were financed by these loans...we have to watch this carefully...follow the 'IYR'..